Things will look much different for USC football this season. Not only will they be without their former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Caleb Williams, but they’ll also be setting up shop in a new conference in the Big Ten.
Not since Trojans third-year head coach Lincoln Riley arrived back in 2022 has USC football gone through such a transition phase. Many thought that by now, the Trojans would be back as national title contenders and mainstays in the College Football Playoff. That has yet to come to fruition.
Riley started off great in Los Angeles, leading USC to an 11-3 season, their best since 2017 with the same record. But the bloom quickly fell off the rose when last year the Trojans, after becoming preseason favorites to win the Pac-12 and make the playoff, faltered and posted an 8-5 record.
Now, a lot of pieces that were supposed to make USC a contender have graduated, gone to the NFL, or transferred, making this season for the program one riddled with questions. With just days away from their big showdown in Las Vegas against the SEC’s LSU, it’s the perfect time to give our last-minute USC football predictions for the 2024 season.
USC football will beat LSU in the Week 1 opener
The last time USC had an out-of-conference opener against an SEC opponent, it was against Alabama. Trojan fans are still trying to forget that embarrassment, where they were nearly run out of AT&T Stadium after getting routed by the Crimson Tide 52-6.
Since then, however, USC has yet to lose another opening game. Granted, it’s not as if they’ve faced the likes of Alabama or other SEC-caliber teams. Nonetheless, they’ve remained unscathed. LSU, however, hasn’t been so fortunate as of late.
For the last four seasons, LSU has lost its opening game, with the last three being against out-of-conference Power Four opponents. Starting in 2020, they lost to Mississippi State, then UCLA in 2021, and Florida State the last two seasons. And now it’s yet another neutral site game against what has become a Big Ten opponent.
As of this writing, USC is a 4.5-point underdog to LSU, according to FanDuel. This could be a statement game for the program that wins. Both head coaches are entering their third seasons after leaving prominent programs to venture elsewhere. They both lost former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks to the NFL Draft this year, and both had abysmal defenses last season.
I believe USC will surprise some folks here and cause LSU to lose its fifth straight season opener.
The USC football defense will improve
The Trojans’ defense certainly can’t get much worse than it was last season. The team ranked 101st in passing defense, 118th in scoring defense, and 116th in total defense. With D’Anton Lynn coming in to take over defensive coordinator duties, there has to be some improvement.
The Bruins had one of the best defenses in the country under Lynn. They ranked 10th in total defense, 14th in scoring defense, and were tied for 12th in the country in turnovers gained with 24.
UCLA did rank 61st in passing defense, but even that would be a massive improvement for this year’s unit. The Trojans are bringing in portal additions to help, including safeties Kamari Ramsey (UCLA) and Akili Arnold (Oregon State) and cornerback DeCarlos Nicholson (Mississippi State).
USC’s defense has to be better this season—it just has to be by default.
Miller Moss will be better than expected for USC football in 2024
Even though Miller Moss had a phenomenal bowl game to end the season for USC last year, there are still plenty of skeptics. With Trojan fans now watching Williams try to make the Chicago Bears into a contender, Moss is being looked at as an off-brand version of a quarterback.
Related NewsArticle continues below
Moss has been biding his time for the last few years, awaiting his chance to shine, and he was given that opportunity in the Holiday Bowl. It was quite the audition, and combined with fall camp, it earned him the starting job this fall for USC.
Riley’s work with quarterbacks is undeniable, regardless of what you think about his development in other parts of his teams. Riley had tremendous success with guys like Baker Mayfield, Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, and of course, Williams, per CBS Sports.
Don’t be shocked if Moss turns into an easy transition from Williams and ends up throwing for over 3,000 yards and close to 30 touchdowns.
USC football will finish no worse than fifth in Big Ten in first season
The competition just got a whole lot fiercer in the Big Ten with the addition of four former Pac-12 members, including USC, this season. The conference now boasts several playoff contenders in Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, and Michigan. With 18 members now making up the conference, the Trojans need a strong finish.
Is it likely that USC gets into the playoff? With 12 teams now, anything is possible, but they are more than likely on the outside looking in this year. This team feels like it’s anywhere from an 8-5 to a 10-3 team, which would put them right around finishing fifth in the Big Ten.