Blue Jays vs Twins Predictions, Picks, Odds — 8-30 (2024)

With Kevin Gausman and Pablo Lopez both in a groove down the stretch, we expect both starters to thrive in tonight's opener of a three-game set at Target Field.

It has been a tough season for the Toronto Blue Jays, but for their part, they’ve been much more watchable in the second half.

For those who don’t remember, (or chose to forget), the Minnesota Twins eliminated the Jays in the wild-card round last season, and like those games, the opener of this series will be a pitcher’s duel with Kevin Gausman facing off against Pablo Lopez.

My Blue Jays vs. Twins predictions break down why runs will be at a premium early on in this American League matchup. Find out more in our MLB picks for Friday, August 30.

Blue Jays vs Twins prediction

My best bet
Under 4.5 first five Innings (-139 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays have been much more fun to watch since the trade deadline, as they have started to relinquish at-bats to their young hitters.

It’s also been nice to see Kevin Gausman display his good stuff of late. The 33-year-old has battled his consistency this season, but he’s in a groove over his last four starts, pitching to a 2.00 ERA and limiting opponents to a .170 batting average.

Although Gausman will face a tough Minnesota Twins lineup, they have cooled off a bit, ranking 14th in batting average, 20th in OPS, and 18th in wRC+ over the last 14 games.

Countering Gausman is Twins ace Pablo Lopez. The right-hander is also dealing, boasting a 2.25 ERA and a .226 batting average over seven starts since the All-Star break. Lopez has also thrown 13 consecutive scoreless innings heading into this game.While Lopez hasn’t faced many of the Jays young hitters, he’s had the edge against those he’s faced, holding them to a .125 average.

Pitching will be the story early on, so I’ll take the first five-inning Under as my best bet. This also helps avoid a Blue Jays bullpen that can implode at a moment’s notice.

Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+162 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. enters this game hitting .324 with a .956 OPS, 27 home runs, and 88 RBI.

The fun thing about the superstar's current six-game hitting streak is that he has multiple hits in five of those games, including five RBI during that stretch. AlthoughVladdy is just 1-for-8 in his career against Pablo Lopez, the Jays slugger has a respectable .462 expected slugging when facing the Twins right-hander.

There aren’t many guys in baseball more locked in than Guerrero. I like him to get into one and hit the Over on 0.5 RBI, and at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have this as a five-star play.

Blue Jays vs Twins odds

Blue Jays vs Twins live odds

Blue Jays vs Twins opening odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +125 (-110) | Minnesota -150 (-110)
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-170) | Minnesota -1.5 (+145)
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)

Blue Jays vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis

• The Blue Jays opened this AL matchup as +125 road underdogs but early bettors have preferred the home team, with Toronto now in the +145 range.
• The Twins have a small edge in starting pitching, but the big edge is in the bullpen where Minnesota ranks seventh in xFIP while Toronto sits 26th.
• Although the total hit the board at an even 8.0, some 7.5s are starting to show up as of early Friday afternoon.
• While I like the first five Under, the full game total makes me pause due to the Blue Jays suspect bullpen.

Blue Jays vs Twins trend

Toronto has only hit the F5 team total Over in four of its last 15 games (-8.25 Units / -47% ROI). Find moreMLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Twins.

Blue Jays vs Twins game info

Blue Jays vs Twins latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Twins weather

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